New Deployment, Same Old Dilemma

Newly deployed members of the Palestinian security detail on patrol in Hebron. Joshua Mitnick

Newly deployed members of the Palestinian security detail on patrol in Hebron. Joshua Mitnick

by Joshua Mitnick
Israel Correspondent

Hebron, West Bank — Wearing blue fatigues under equipment vests that read “Special Police Forces” in English, members of the newly deployed Palestinian security detail brandish M-16s and Kalatchikov rifles while traffic rumbles by on a main street in Hebron.

In recent weeks this holy city and its highly flammable mixture of Palestinians and Israeli settlers became the third West Bank city where President Mahmoud Abbas has been allowed by Israel to bulk up Palestinian forces to fight crime and terrorism — thus plugging up a vacuum that could be filled by Hamas.
“The main target of the operation is to show the people security and stability,” said Hebron Gov. Hussein Al Arwaj. “It’s to show the presence of the Palestinian Authority.”

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But as the Bush administration acknowledged this week that Israelis and Palestinians won’t reach a deal before its deadline of the end of 2008, the deployments in cities like Hebron remain the sole visible manifestations of progress. Following what some consider Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s last shuttle mission to the Middle East, many are sizing up the Bush legacy and whether the peace talks started in Annapolis, Md., a year ago will survive into the Obama presidency.

To be sure, in the twilight period between successive Israeli and U.S. administrations the talks have been left on autopilot. A serious escalation of fighting around Gaza could easily imperil the negotiations, as well as an outbreak of violence between the estranged Hamas and Fatah forces.

Upbeat observers emphasize how the Annapolis process paved the way for the resumption of peace talks for the first time since the 2000 Camp David negotiations.

“Very serious negotiations have been taking place over the last year with about 100 meetings of negotiators from eight technical committees,” said Gershon Baskin, the co-president of the Israel Palestinian Center for Research and Information. “Some of them have made considerable progress. All of this is there on the ground to continue. I actually don’t think that they’re that far from an agreement.”

Baskin also said that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the Kadima Party leader, and Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qureia have developed a strong rapport.

Though the Obama administration is likely to encourage the continuation of the peace talks, it’s unclear how high a priority it will be with the economic downturn foremost on the minds of Americans.
“This new [American] administration is going to take its time coming to this issue,” said Ghassan Khatib, a former minister in the Palestinian government. “They are warning against high expectations or a quick move or change. This is not practical or realistic.”

Baskin said, however, that the Israeli and the Palestinian sides are prepared to continue talks with minimal U.S. involvement.

But most experts note that as far as the final-status talks go, there’s been no perceptible progress on the central disputes over Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees and borders.
“Yes, it was the first negotiations in seven years, but they didn’t get any further than Taba 2001,” said Yossi Alpher, the co-editor of Bitterlemons.org, who referred to the talks between surrogates of Yasir Arafat and former Prime Minister Barak in a last-ditch effort to end the escalating second intifada.

“There isn’t a thriving peace process. This process didn’t do anything. The only thing you can claim it did, is that it created a backdrop of negotiations for progress in security” in the West Bank.

Israeli officers have praised the Palestinian Authority’s efforts at boosting law and order in the northern West Bank cities of Jenin and Nablus by cracking down on militant gangs.

The successful deployment of Palestinian police officers is one of the tangible changes “on the ground” intended to build confidence between the sides; the deployments should allow Israel military to remove security roadblocks and stay outside of Palestinian cities. They are also intended to give a push to peace negotiators.

Critics of the process say that besides the security reform, little else has been achieved: the governmental reform among the Palestinians has been minimal, most of Israel’s military roadblocks are still up, and the illegal settlement outposts slated for dismantling have barely been touched.

Hebron is a particularly tense city because of the daily intermingling between Palestinians and neighboring Jewish settlers. It’s considered the biggest challenge for Palestinian policemen because it’s the part of the West Bank where Hamas is thought to be strongest.

But local Hebron residents are complaining that the PA is conducting a political crackdown against Hamas as well as against innocents suspected of sympathizing with the Islamic militants.
Though crime has dropped, the police arrest and interrogate residents solely based on their religiosity, claimed said Amar Kawasmeh, a produce merchant.

“That’s going to backfire on the PA,” he said. “People will start hating them and they will lose support.”
Earlier this week, Hamas turned down an invitation by Egypt at the last minute to hold reconciliation talks with Fatah, citing the crackdown in the West Bank. Critics of the Annapolis peace process have said that any peace accord reached between the sides will be of little value if Hamas remains in control of Gaza as a separate entity.

Nadir al Zahrir, a Hamas-affiliated legislative member from Hebron who served two years in an Israeli security jail before being freed in the summer, accused the PA of doing the work of the Israeli army. He accused the Palestinian security services of holding 200 political prisoners.

“Entering the houses of the people a creating panic is not creating security,” he said. “The main response of the deployment is to crush the opposition and destroy the resistance.”

The Hebron governor, Al Arwaj, rejected the accusations of political arrests. “That concept doesn’t exist in our lexicon. We have thousands of Hamas people in Hebron and we haven’t entered their houses.”
A U.S. diplomat based in Israel said the Annapolis process had produced “robust” progress that will be left to the next administration.

Speculation that the Obama administration might open a dialogue with Hamas was fueled by a report in the Arabic daily Al Hayat. It quoted an aide to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who said Obama aides visited the Gaza Strip during the campaign.

Some experts, however, are pushing for Israel to look to other peace tracks like Syria. In addition to the Hamas-Fatah split, it may be too difficult for Israel’s government to marshal the strength to confront the West Bank.

“For now, it Syria looks like an easier fruit to pick from the tree,” said Meir Javedanfar, a Middle East analyst. “Talks with Syria are easier to conduct because President Bahsar Assad is more motivated, and also there’s more unity in Syria when you’re talking about a leadership. We don’t have that luxury with the Palestinians.”

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