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Obama ‘Baffled’ By Jews’ Resistance
Sen. Barack Obama laying a wreath Wednesday morning at Yad Vashem, Israel’s Holocaust memorial museum.With him is Yad Vashem Chairman Avner Shalev, center. getty images by James D. Besser
“More than anything else,” Levine continued, “he wants people to realize what his record is and his closeness to the Jewish community in Chicago.” Levine’s comments provided a rare insight 
Jewish voters may be only a tiny slice of the American electorate, but Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, who was on a high-stakes Middle East swing this week that included meetings with top Israel and Palestinian leaders, is acting as if Jews hold the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Some analysts say that may indeed be the case. Florida, a crucial swing state with 27 electoral votes and a large, politically active Jewish community, could well tip toward him or toward his opponent, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on the basis of a few thousand votes, as it did in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore lost the presidency. But Obama campaign insiders say it’s not just Florida and a handful of other key states, or the campaign’s voracious need for money; it’s also personal. Obama worked closely with local Jewish groups during his years as a community organizer on Chicago’s South Side. But critics continue to point to his relationship with his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other harsh critics of Israel; the possible influence of his having grown up in Indonesia, a Muslim country; and his lack of foreign policy experience. There is an almost talismanic quality to the Jewish vote. Several Jewish Democrats said this week that while the 62 percent of the Jewish community Obama garnered in a poll last week may be high compared to his support from other white voter groups, the fact he is lagging behind other recent Democratic candidates suggests continuing unease about his foreign policy experience. And that may affect commentators and pundits, who increasingly regard the Jewish community’s views as a political benchmark on candidates’ foreign policy qualifications. Obama’s 62 percent showing came in a poll by J Street, the new pro-peace process political action committee and lobby group, and was about the same as he scored in a Gallup survey in May. McCain captured 32 percent of the Jewish vote in the new J Street poll, which surveyed 800 Jews. Ira Forman, director of the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC), said Obama’s current showing is in line with Jewish Democratic averages in the 1970s and 1980s, and that his lead is likely to grow as Election Day nears and Jewish voters focus more on the issues on which GOP candidates are particularly vulnerable this year, starting with the economy. “Historically, the undecided vote [among Jewish voters] tends to go to the candidate with a substantial lead,” Forman said. “And as more Jewish voters become comfortable with Obama, many of them will come home.” But privately, even some Obama activists talk about stubborn resistance to his candidacy based on a complex stew of factors, including a continuing e-mail campaign falsely portraying him as a secret Muslim, as well as the great wild card in this year’s election: race. This week Obama was in Israel on a Middle Eastern swing that the campaign says was to introduce him to world leaders and give him an opportunity to hear their concerns. Political observers say the trip aimed to burnish Obama’s foreign policy credentials by showing him interacting with top world leaders as an equal. The trip began auspiciously when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki seemed to agree with Obama’s plans for a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops from his country, a statement widely interpreted here as a slam at McCain, who opposes any timetable for withdrawal. A secondary function of the trip was to reassure Israel-focused voters that Obama understands the complexities of the Arab-Israeli conflict; his planned visits to Yad Vashem and the rocket-ravaged town of Sderot were meant to provide visual reassurance. The Obama campaign continues to focus heavily on Jewish voters as the general election campaign ramps up — although Democratic Party officials say Obama himself will spend more time with more critical voter blocs, including women and Hispanics, while the campaign’s Jewish outreach will emphasize local groups, well-known surrogates like Florida Rep. Robert Wexler and the ongoing Jewish outreach effort at the Democratic National Committee. Political observers and campaign insiders cite several reasons for the strong focus on the relatively small Jewish community, a segment that, at best, will play a critical role in only a handful of states. “The Jewish vote is concentrated in Democratic base states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, but also on one key swing state: Florida,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “And there are small but significant Jewish communities in most other closely contested swing states. If those states turn out to be close, the margin for Obama among every group could be critical.” Unusually high turnout rates among Jewish voters magnify their impact, he said. “The campaign hasn’t yet made a decision about whether Florida is genuinely competitive,” said a Jewish Democratic official. “It’s not even clear they will make an all-out effort there.” The Jewish swing state calculus could focus more this year on states like Nevada, which has one of the fastest-growing Jewish populations in the country, this activist said. “The Obama campaign has pretty much tapped out individual contributors and the number of people giving small amounts online is diminishing,” he said. “So it’s back to the Democratic Party’s traditional finance sources, which for the most part means big Jewish donors.” The campaign’s heavy Jewish outreach is meant to “reassure major contributors, to cut the resistance he’s been encountering,” Ginsberg said. But the strong focus on Jewish voters by the campaign and the media is also about something less tangible. Part of it is personal: Obama’s unhappiness that a Jewish community that was a prime source of support during his community-organizing days in Chicago, and his runs for the Senate and state legislature before that, is now seen by the media as a major problem for him. “The personal factor is highly relevant,” said Obama adviser Levine. “It’s much more important than money at this stage.” There is also the special role the Jewish community has taken on in the debate over foreign policy, said California State University political scientist Raphael Sonenshein, who studies the Jewish community. “Jewish voters are the most attentive foreign policy voters in the country because of Israel, and are both highly sophisticated and overrepresented in the chattering classes,” he said. For a Democrat with limited foreign policy credentials, “it’s vital to make a strong showing” with that segment, he said. “It’s always seen as a sign of electoral weakness if a Democrat can’t get an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote.” Obama faces a critical foreign policy test with the overall electorate, Sonenshein said, especially since the McCain campaign is already working hard to exploit the senator’s relative inexperience. Pundits, commentators and many voters will be looking to the Jewish community as a measure of whether the candidate is passing. It’s not enough for Obama to get 63 percent of the Jewish vote, he said; even though that would be good by any standard, it will be interpreted as a sign that Obama is still seen as lacking on the foreign policy front. |
  
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