Heading Off A Gaza Invasion — For Now

Amir Efrat, who lives on Kibbutz Kfar Azza on the Gaza border, inspects the fields. Kfar Azza residents fear continuing attacks from Gaza-based Hamas terrorists. Joshua Mitnick

Amir Efrat, who lives on Kibbutz Kfar Azza on the Gaza border, inspects the fields. Kfar Azza residents fear continuing attacks from Gaza-based Hamas terrorists. Joshua Mitnick

by Joshua Mitnick
Israel Correspondent

Tel Aviv — Despite losing a member to mortar fire from Gaza two weeks ago, the residents of Kibbutz Kfar Azza prefer a cease-fire agreement with Hamas rather than a broad invasion.

“We hope there will be an agreement. No one wants a military operation without trying to reach agreement first,” said Kfar Azza spokeswoman Orly Regev. “We want peace, and security. We aren’t blood thirsty.”

Indeed, despite repeated warnings that the zero hour for a military invasion of the Gaza Strip is approaching, similar sentiment appears to prevail among Israel’s leadership. Even though many officials and analysts believe that a Gaza confrontation is unavoidable, the time has not yet arrived.

And so, officials from both Israel and Hamas were

in Egypt this week to discuss a cease-fire, stirring speculation that a halt in cross-border attacks could go into effect as early as this week.

Publicly, Israeli officials tried to use both carrots and sticks to prod Hamas into an agreement.

At the same time as a Foreign Ministry spokesman threatened a military response to the rocket attacks, he were also suggested that a successful implementation of an cease-fire could prompt the re-opening of Gaza’s crossings into Israel — an economic lifeline for the 1.4 million residents of the coastal enclave closed for months.

“The current situation [with regard to Gaza] is simply not sustainable,” said Mark Regev, the spokesman. “[The rocket fire] has to stop.”

Israel has even relaxed some of its positions, calling for “movement” towards the freeing of Gilad Shalit, the soldier kidnapped in June 2006 at the Gaza border, rather than for his actual release.

Still, any agreement is expected to be extremely fragile — and many expect that a cease-fire will have only the most limited of life spans.

Israel’s conditions for the non-aggression accord are for a “complete cessation” of all cross-border attacks emanating from Gaza, regardless of which militia is responsible. “Hamas is clearly in charge of the Gaza Strip, and we won’t let them subcontract out terrorism,” Regev said.

Hamas is currently confronting a handful of independent militias that are likely to use Israeli offensives in the West Bank as a pretext to launch fresh attacks from Gaza. Over the course of the cease-fire talks, Hamas dropped a demand that the relaxation in hostilities include the West Bank.

“Islamic Jihad is not convinced that they must observe a calm in Gaza if there is aggression in the West Bank,” said Talal Okal, a Gaza-based columnist for the Al Ayyam daily newspaper. “Many other groups like the Al-Aksa Brigades don’t have an interest in a calm,” he added, referring to the militia linked to the rival Fatah Party.

Worried that the Islamic militants will use the lull in fighting as an opportunity to stockpile missiles and to sneak in field commanders trained outside of Gaza, Israel is also conditioning the calm on what would be an unprecedented halt to weapons smuggling. Israel already has been disappointed by anti-smuggling promises. A similar stipulation against Hezbollah smuggling was part of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended Israel’s monthlong war in Lebanon, but failed to put a stop to the weapons build-up.

“We have to see the end of the armed smuggling and the armed build up in the Gaza Strip, and it’s clear that if we don’t deal with this factor the calm will just be a calm before the storm,” added Regev.

So why give the cease-fire with Hamas a chance at all?

In Israel, the attention of officials is focused elsewhere in the region. Hezbollah’s recent show of force against militias allied against Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad has stoked concern in Israel that its northern neighbor has come under the domination of a powerful with ties to Iran.

“Israel is concerned that Iran is flexing its muscles and there could be trouble ahead,” said Meir Javedanfar, a Tel Aviv-based Middle East analyst. “Having a quiet Gaza border is important.”

Haaretz, which reported that Hezbollah’s gains are troubling the Israeli intelligence community, reported that an agreement on a cease-fire could be implement by the end of the week. Though Israel isn’t expected to formally announce a cease-fire (the prime minister’s spokespeople don’t even admit to indirect talks with Hamas), Israel’s military establishment will wait to make sure there’s a full cessation before making good on its commitment.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, meanwhile, is grappling with a growing tide of reports about an investigation into whether he accepted money improperly from backers when he was a cabinet minister and mayor of Jerusalem.

With the background noise of recently revealed investigation, commentators are speculating that each of the prime minister’s decisions is colored by his interest to deflect resignation calls over the scandals. And though many Israelis might support an invasion of Gaza, Olmert will almost certainly face cynics who accuse him of sacrificing soldiers for his political career.

“The best thing for Olmert to do now, is to have some peace and quiet,” said Yossi Alpher, the co-editor of the online Israeli-Palestinian dialogue Bitterlemons.org. “He’s being investigated and from this standpoint, this is the best move he can make.”
To be sure, Alpher says that at some point down the road, Israel will decide to invade Gaza and remove Hamas from power. But in addition to public backing for Olmert, what is missing right now is an exit strategy. Having left Gaza three years ago, Israel will not want to find itself responsible ruling a hostile population. The solution may be an international trusteeship for Gaza that includes peacekeepers, or a coordinated return of the Palestinian Authority along with a peace agreement, he suggested.

“I think it’s inevitable that were going to conclude that the only way to deal with Hamas is going to be launching a massive military operation to remove it in Gaza,” he added
Even among the left-leaning kibbutzim surrounding Gaza, some are reaching the same conclusion.

Doron Salomon, a tour operator who lives on a kibbutz near Gaza, says he considers himself a peacenik, but has lost hope that there will be stability on the border before there’s a new round of fighting.

“I don’t like wars, I want peace, I want to live. I have two kids in the army, and I want them to come home in one piece, just like every soldier. But at the same time, that I know it won’t happen,” Salomon said. “Some of our neighbors want to kill us and think they can kill us. It says in the Bible, “Whoever gets up to kill you, you should get up to kill them. Even if there is a half-year of quiet, after that there won’t be quiet.”

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